A study by Mercado Bitcoin found that Bitcoin tends to outperform gold and the S&P 500 in the 60 days following major economic or geopolitical shocks. Key numeric highlights include Bitcoin trading around $67,359.62, a 24% gain over the 60 days after U.S. tariff escalations in April last year and a 21% rise in the 60 days after the March 2020 COVID-19 shock. Most recently, Bitcoin rose about 2.2% amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, and the study cautions that judging performance too soon after a crisis can be misleading.
Mercado Bitcoin conducted an analysis of asset price performance in the 60-day windows following identified economic and geopolitical shocks. The study measured returns for Bitcoin, gold and the S&P 500 in each window to compare short-term post-shock outcomes. It examined multiple episodes of market stress cited in the firm’s report. The methodology focused on measuring returns within those defined windows rather than on longer-term horizons.
The study consistently found that Bitcoin posted stronger returns than gold and the S&P 500 across the episodes analyzed. The firm’s findings indicate Bitcoin has repeatedly bounced back after shocks. The report documents multiple instances where Bitcoin outperformed the two benchmark assets in the post-shock windows. The study includes a caution that judging bitcoin’s performance too soon after a crisis can be misleading.
The Mercado Bitcoin report cites April 2020 U.S. tariff escalations as one case study in which Bitcoin rose 24% over the following 60 days, while gold gained 8% and the S&P 500 gained 4%. The report also highlights the March 2020 COVID-19 episode, during which Bitcoin rose 21% and both gold and the S&P 500 lagged those gains. Each episode is presented as a 60-day post-shock window for comparing short-term returns across assets. The firm includes multiple such episodes to document recurring post-crisis performance patterns.
Since the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the report records a Bitcoin price increase of more than 2.2%, rising from about $65,800 to roughly $67,300 over the cited period. Over that same period the report records gold falling about 11% and the S&P 500 declining approximately 4.4%, with the latter noted as its steepest monthly drop since 2022. The report frames these moves as an additional recent example where Bitcoin outpaced both a traditional safe-haven and the broad equity benchmark. The cases are reported alongside other episodes to illustrate similarities in short-term post-shock returns.
These case examples are presented in the report as instances in which Bitcoin’s short-term returns exceeded those of gold and the S&P 500 following major shocks. The report includes a caution that judging Bitcoin’s performance too soon after a crisis can be misleading.
Rony Szuster cautioned that assessing Bitcoin’s performance too soon after a crisis can be misleading, using an analogy that judging the outcome from the opening minutes of a film risks drawing premature conclusions. He warned that early post-shock price moves may not provide a complete picture and advised restraint in immediate interpretation. Szuster also described common investor behavior during market shocks, noting that market participants often sell positions to reduce risk or raise cash, and that such activity can cause even traditionally defensive assets to fall. His comments accompany the study’s short-term comparisons and serve as a caution about interpreting immediate market reactions.
The Mercado Bitcoin study finds that, across multiple episodes of major economic and geopolitical shocks, Bitcoin has consistently shown a pattern of bouncing back in the short-term post-event windows. This repeated post-shock recovery is reported alongside cautions from the study about drawing firm conclusions from immediate market reactions, and is presented as a high-level observation rather than a definitive forecast.
