The India crackdown on prediction markets has led to Polymarket becoming inaccessible for users in the country, as the site now displays an error message, “This site can’t be reached. Check if there is a typo in polymarket.com.” This development follows an advisory issued on April 25 by the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY), which instructed VPN service providers to block access to prediction markets, specifically targeting Polymarket.
Meanwhile, Kalshi remains accessible but is likely to face a blocking order soon under the same directive.
Prediction markets, which allow users to wager real money on the outcomes of various events, are considered illegal under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025. This act bans such markets as part of the government’s broader stance against online money gaming. The restrictive regulatory environment is also impacting other cryptocurrency-related activities in India, with references to high taxation rates and tighter financial oversight contributing to a challenging business climate.
The Indian government classifies prediction markets as a form of online money gaming, which are banned under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025. This legal framework is part of a broader strategy to regulate online gambling activities, reflecting concerns about the socio-economic impacts of such platforms. Prediction markets allow individuals to bet real money on the outcomes of various events, such as referendums or election results, which the Indian authorities have deemed as contrary to the objectives of responsible gaming.
In tandem with these regulations, the government maintains a risk-averse approach to cryptocurrency. The implementation of a “shadow ban” on cryptocurrencies is facilitated by a 30% flat tax on gains from cryptocurrency and a 1% tax deducted at source (TDS) on all crypto transactions. These measures are intended to curtail domestic trading volumes and limit the financial risks associated with cryptocurrency fluctuations.
Further regulatory oversight is pushed by the Ministry of Finance through the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU), emphasizing the importance of Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Countering Financing of Terrorism (CFT) frameworks in the digital finance landscape. Additionally, both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government demonstrate cautious engagement with private cryptocurrencies, sending signals that suggest limited acceptance as a part of financial innovation in India’s banking system. This stance has prompted some crypto startups to relocate to more favorable regulatory environments such as Dubai and Singapore.
The restrictive regulatory environment in India has affected the domestic cryptocurrency industry, prompting some startups to relocate to jurisdictions such as Dubai and Singapore. The Reserve Bank of India and the government have signalled limited acceptance of private cryptocurrencies as a form of financial innovation, and regulatory measures in India have been described as risk-averse. Taxation and oversight measures directed at crypto activity are part of the broader policy context influencing firm decisions to seek more favourable regulatory frameworks abroad.
On May 20, the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance met with crypto exchanges Binance, WazirX and Zebpay in New Delhi to discuss regulations and taxation concerning virtual digital assets (VDA). The meeting brought those exchanges together with the committee to address regulatory and tax issues related to VDAs. These engagements form part of the Indian government’s interaction with industry actors about the regulatory treatment and fiscal implications of virtual digital assets.
India has increased regulatory measures and blocking efforts targeting prediction markets, including an April 25 advisory from the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology that instructed VPN service providers and internet service providers to block access to platforms and a blocking order reportedly issued to Polymarket with a similar order being prepared for Kalshi. Polymarket has become inaccessible to users in India and the site showed an error message indicating it could not be reached. The government classifies prediction markets as online money gaming and banned them under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025. The broader approach to cryptocurrency has been risk-averse, with taxation measures described as a “shadow ban” that include a 30% flat tax on crypto gains and a 1% tax deducted at source on transactions.
The Ministry of Finance is pushing anti‑money laundering and counter‑terrorism financing oversight through the Financial Intelligence Unit, while the Reserve Bank of India and the government have signalled limited acceptance of private cryptocurrencies as financial innovation. Industry stakeholders have responded by relocating some startups to Dubai and Singapore and by engaging with regulators, as the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance met with Binance, WazirX and Zebpay in New Delhi on May 20 to discuss regulation and taxation of virtual digital assets. Overall, the regulatory environment is cautious and restrictive, with blocking actions and fiscal measures shaping industry responses.
