Bitcoin trades around $75,787.02 at the time of writing. The main subject is the bear market bottom indicator based on the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, which uses the relative positions of those two averages and interprets a cross of the 50-week below the 100-week as a bear-market signal. As of April 17, that 50-week/100-week crossover signal has not occurred, and the indicator has not yet flagged a bear-market bottom.
The indicator is calculated using two lines: the 50-week moving average and the 100-week moving average. On typical trend setups, the 50-week moving average sits above the 100-week moving average. A bear market signal is defined when the 50-week moving average crosses below the 100-week moving average. The indicator therefore focuses on the relative positions of those two weekly averages and interprets that crossover as a bear-market signal.
Historically, that crossover has occurred three times: April 2015, February 2019, and September 2022. Each crossover has coincided with the end of a bear market and major price bottoms that have not been revisited since. After the April 2015 crossover, Bitcoin rose from about $200 to nearly $20,000 by the end of 2017. A similar pattern followed after the early 2019 crossover. During the 2022 crypto winter, the downtrend ended after the September 2022 crossover, and Bitcoin bottomed out in the final months and later rallied to $126,000 by October 2020.
The 50-week/100-week moving-average crossover has occurred three times in Bitcoin’s history: April 2015, February 2019, and September 2022. Each of these crossovers coincided with the end of a bear market and marked major price bottoms that have not been revisited since. These three dates are the recorded instances of that crossover, and they are the only occurrences listed in the source material.
After the April 2015 crossover, BTC rose from about $200 to nearly $20,000 by the end of 2017. A similar pattern followed after the early 2019 crossover. During the 2022 crypto winter, the downtrend ended after the September 2022 crossover and BTC bottomed out in the final months. Bitcoin later rallied to $126,000 by October 2020, as recorded in the source. These outcomes are the post-crossover market results listed in the source.
As of April 17, the 50-week/100-week crossover has not occurred and the indicator has not flagged a bear-market bottom. Bitcoin trades around $75,787.02 at the time of writing. The asset declined from an October high of over $126,000 to about $75,000. It briefly reached a low near $60,000 in early February.
The source material records that the broader bear market may still be intact and could worsen before a bottom is found. The recent bounce toward $75,000 is described in the source as likely a temporary recovery rather than the start of a full-fledged bull market. Because the 50-week average has not crossed below the 100-week average, the specific crossover-based bear-market signal has not been triggered. This leaves the indicator in a state where historical crossover confirmations of bear-market ends have not been replicated as of April 17.
The 50-week and 100-week moving averages form the indicator, which has coincided with the end of a bear market on three historical occasions—April 2015, February 2019 and September 2022—and marked major price bottoms that were not revisited. As of April 17, the 50-week downward crossover below the 100-week has not occurred. Current market conditions remain cautious because the broader bear market may still be intact and the recent bounce toward $75,000 is likely a temporary recovery.
