Prediction markets have emerged as a new growth driver for companies like Coinbase and Robinhood. According to Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Ramsey El-Assal, these markets are key areas of focus. Recently, Coinbase shares have experienced an increase of about 18% quarter-to-date. Meanwhile, Robinhood has seen its shares rise approximately 40% in April from the lows in late March. These figures illustrate the growing investor confidence in the potential of prediction markets as engines for future growth.
Both Coinbase and Robinhood are expected to report softer results for Q1 2026 following a pullback in crypto prices and a decline in trading activity. Bitcoin fell about 23% and Ether fell about 29% in the quarter, and Coinbase trading volumes declined from about $66 billion in January to about $54 billion in March.
Cantor Fitzgerald estimates Coinbase consumer trading volumes at $35 billion and institutional trading volumes at $167 billion for the period, and notes both figures are below Wall Street expectations. Robinhood faces a sequential decline in trading volumes and an impact to net interest revenue from lower rates, although higher volatility and stronger yields in equities and options provide some cushion.
Coinbase’s crypto revenue quality may be under pressure because its tiered pricing structure yields lower returns on large active traders and higher returns on marginal traders, and marginal traders pulled back during recent volatility.
These trends were cited as reasons for expectations of softer trading and revenue metrics for both platforms in Q1 2026. Cantor Fitzgerald’s estimates alongside the reported declines in crypto prices and volumes form the basis for those expectations.
Investors are treating the quarterly print as backward-looking and focusing on forward-looking demand trends and the product roadmap, including prediction markets. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Ramsey El-Assal highlights prediction markets as a growth area for Coinbase and Robinhood. The prediction markets offering launched this year and continues to attract meaningful interest. The broader view in the analysis is that growth in the next phase will depend more on product expansion and new use cases than on crypto price cycles.
Robinhood is pursuing prediction markets along with tokenization and private market access, and updates to pattern day trading rules could drive growth. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target for Coinbase to $250 and raised its price target for Robinhood to $110 while maintaining overweight ratings on both names. Cantor Fitzgerald highlighted these initiatives and price target adjustments in its analysis.
Broader industry outlook holds that future growth for Coinbase and Robinhood will depend more on product expansion and new use cases than on crypto price cycles. This perspective shifts attention to forward-looking elements of the product roadmap — including prediction markets and, for Robinhood, tokenization and private market access — and aligns investor focus on demand trends and new offerings rather than short-term swings in crypto prices.
