Bitcoin bottom is in, Samson Mow said on X, noting that bitcoin’s all-time high occurred 37 days before the April 2024 halving. His view contrasts with other analysts who remain divided, with some arguing the market is near a bottom and others warning further declines are possible.
Key forecasts cited range roughly from $40,000 at the low end to $55,000 at the high end, and timeframes vary among analysts.
Samson Mow wrote on X that the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated, stating, “I find it incredibly interesting how some people are so certain that the bottom is coming in four months because of ‘cycles.'” He noted that bitcoin’s all-time high occurred 37 days before the April 2024 halving. He wrote, “But we had an (all-time high) ATH 37 days before the halving, so it would seem even if you believe in cycles, you should reason out that the cycles accelerated.” He then stated, “The bitcoin bottom is in.”
Those statements in his X post present his argument linking ATH timing and accelerated cycles to his conclusion that ‘The bitcoin bottom is in,’ and he expressed that claim directly.
Analysts remain divided on where the bitcoin market bottom will form, presenting a range of forecasts and indicator-based views. Markus Thielen forecast a bitcoin bottom around $55,000 and specified a timing window between August and October. Arthur Hayes projected a bitcoin bottom around $40,000 within six months. James Van Straten forecast a possible 15% or greater plunge to mark the bottom, and tied that projection to bitcoin testing the 200-week moving average. Omkar Godbole suggested that, according to a contrarian indicator based on the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, the downside is limited, and he described the indicator as involving a bear cross when the 50-week moving average approaches or crosses below the 100-week moving average. The forecasts and indicators cited come from named analysts using different indicators and models and therefore present divergent views on timing and depth.
The Bitcoin 200-week moving average is being described as a potential battleground, with on-chain data suggesting the $50,000 to $54,000 range could become the next key price area.
On-chain metrics tied to tests of the 200-week moving average are cited in analyses that highlight that $50,000–$54,000 band as significant. Concerns emerged that institutional demand from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs following the April 2024 halving could alter typical post-halving patterns.
Those concerns have been raised alongside the on-chain evidence pointing to the 200-week moving average. The 200-week moving average and the $50,000–$54,000 range are cited as focal points for market attention.
Samson Mow stated on X that “The bitcoin bottom is in,” while other analysts remain divided and offer differing forecasts based on a range of indicators. Market commentary cites forecasts from around $40,000 to $55,000 and highlights moving averages and on-chain price bands such as the $50,000–$54,000 range as focal points for market attention.
