The BETZ ETF Bitcoin correlation offers insight into potential timing signals for investors. Launched in June 2020, the BETZ ETF is listed on the NYSE as the Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF. Since its inception, it has garnered $98 million in net inflows and currently manages approximately $50 million in assets. As of the latest data, BETZ exhibits a 90-day correlation of 0.73 and a 365-day correlation of 0.91 with Bitcoin prices. This section will delve into key metrics that highlight its links to Bitcoin and how these correlations may serve as timing signals.
Statistical measures indicate a strong relationship between BETZ and Bitcoin prices over the sample period. R² is approximately 0.83, implying that over 80% of the variation in BETZ returns is statistically linked to Bitcoin movements. Measured correlations are 0.91 over 365 days and 0.73 over 90 days, reflecting higher long-term co-movement than in the shorter window. These statistical measures were used to quantify the co-movement between the ETF and Bitcoin prices in the analysis.
The timing relationship in the analysis shows that BETZ tends to reach major peaks and bottoms a couple of weeks or months ahead of Bitcoin market turnarounds. BETZ peaked in September 2021, with Bitcoin’s peak occurring in November 2021. BETZ bottomed in September 2022, and Bitcoin reached a corresponding low roughly three months later. In the most recent full-year instance, BETZ peaked in August last year, about two months before Bitcoin’s peak. The analysis documents these lead-lag instances without asserting causality. Correlation is not definitive causation.
Traders view BETZ as a complementary sentiment and liquidity proxy rather than a standalone predictor of Bitcoin price trends. Ray Dalio is cited by observers as noting that Bitcoin behaves like a risk-sensitive macro asset rather than a safe-haven instrument. The article notes the relevance of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF to Bitcoin price dynamics. The analysis emphasizes that correlation is not definitive causation.
BETZ recently decoupled from rising Bitcoin prices, and the article notes this decoupling could be an early signal but may not persist. Market observers document that BETZ tends to hit major peaks and bottoms a couple of weeks or months ahead of Bitcoin market turnarounds, with instances cited in the analysis. The article records specific lead-lag instances: BETZ peaking in September 2021 preceding Bitcoin’s peak in November 2021; BETZ bottoming in September 2022 followed by Bitcoin three months later; and BETZ peaking in August last year, about two months before Bitcoin’s peak.
The article also includes the online marketplace board’s description of a half-cash, half-stock offer as ‘neither credible nor attractive’.
