Bitcoin’s market performance has recently experienced significant fluctuations, earning the nickname “Rektember.” In August, Bitcoin saw a remarkable 25% increase, marking its strongest performance since November 2024 and its best August since 2017. However, as September began, the cryptocurrency’s price fell below $77,000, facing the historical trend of being its worst month since 2013, with an average loss of nearly 3%. Interestingly, despite this trend, the last three Septembers have concluded with gains.
Entering September, Bitcoin’s market conditions are heavily influenced by the prevailing macroeconomic environment. Key factors include Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, which underscored heightened inflation concerns. The US 10-year yield has risen to 4.784%, highlighting increasing interest rates. Markets are currently pricing in a 66% probability of a 25 basis-point rate hike at the upcoming September 16 FOMC meeting, with the possibility of another hike before the year’s end.
Higher interest rates generally tighten financial conditions and bolster the US dollar, often negatively impacting risk assets like Bitcoin and Gold. Additionally, WTI crude oil has reached $88 per barrel, the highest since late July, driven by ongoing tensions involving Iran. These elements create a complex backdrop for Bitcoin as it navigates potential headwinds from both monetary policy decisions and geopolitical issues. These factors contribute to heightened uncertainty in the market as September unfolds.
September is historically Bitcoin’s worst month since 2013, with an average loss near 3% and only five positive returns in thirteen years. Despite that historical tendency, the last three Septembers have ended green for Bitcoin. These statistics constitute the historical context for Bitcoin entering September.
September is expected to be a battle between tailwinds—ETF inflows, DAT inflows, and on-chain crypto market activity—and headwinds including geopolitical tensions (war), higher oil prices, inflation, and possible further rate hikes. The September 16 FOMC meeting and its rate decision may set the macroeconomic tone for the remainder of the year. Higher rates tightening financial conditions and lifting the dollar are identified as negative for Bitcoin, Gold, and other risk assets. WTI crude reaching $88 per barrel amid ongoing Iran-related tensions is listed among the headwinds.
Bitcoin rallied 25% in August, its strongest month since November 2024 and the best August since 2017, before slipping below $77,000 at the start of September amid a month that is historically the weakest for Bitcoin since 2013, with an average loss near 3%, although the last three Septembers have ended green.
Near-term uncertainties framing the outlook include elevated inflation emphasized by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, the rise of the US 10-year yield to 4.784%, markets pricing a 66% probability of a 25 basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting with the possibility of another hike before year-end, WTI crude at $88 per barrel amid ongoing Iran-related tensions, and broader geopolitical tensions; these macroeconomic and geopolitical factors tighten financial conditions and are negative for risk assets such as Bitcoin and Gold.
