Prediction markets have reached an annualized revenue run rate above $3 billion, up from about $2 billion in December, and revenues today remain largely transaction-driven across platforms. Trading volumes in January rose more than 40% from December, and February is tracking at a similar pace, with accelerating volumes noted alongside stronger market structure and early institutional engagement. The sector could reach roughly $10 billion of annual revenue by 2030, with anticipated growth in data, research and financing services as the ecosystem develops.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange for event contracts and Polymarket is a large decentralized platform covering politics, sports, and economics. These platforms operate as prediction markets that hedge discrete event risk directly rather than through proxy instruments such as index futures or options, and they provide real-time, capital-weighted probability signals based on market participants’ capital allocation. Kalshi and Polymarket represent leading players in the evolving ecosystem and revenues on these platforms remain largely transaction-driven as the market scales.
Citizens notes accelerating volumes, stronger market structure and early institutional engagement in prediction markets. Institutional participation is emerging through data integration, liquidity provision, settlement standards and regulatory clarity. Growth in the sector is expected to extend beyond transaction fees into data, research and financing services as the ecosystem develops. Observers compare the trajectory of prediction markets with the early evolution of listed derivatives and digital assets.
Institutional participation in prediction markets is emerging through data integration, liquidity provision, settlement standards and regulatory clarity. Citizens notes accelerating volumes, stronger market structure and early institutional engagement in the sector. Early institutional engagement is visible in efforts around market infrastructure, data flows and liquidity services.
Revenues today are largely transaction-driven, with growth expected in data, research and financing services as the ecosystem develops. Citizens’ analysts view the sector’s trajectory as mirroring the early evolution of listed derivatives and digital assets. Citizens also projects that prediction markets could reach $10 billion of annual revenue by 2030.
Institutional participation and expanding revenue lines are identified as central factors in the market’s development. Citizens frames the market trajectory with parallels to earlier financial-market evolutions.
Prediction markets are demonstrating a strong growth trajectory, with increasing institutional engagement, accelerating volumes and strengthening market infrastructure noted across platforms. Revenue models that are currently largely transaction-driven are expected to broaden into data services, research and financing as the ecosystem matures and market participants deepen integration and liquidity provision. Citizens frames the sector’s medium-term outlook as optimistic and explicitly compares the market’s development to the early evolution of listed derivatives and digital assets.
