Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), chair of the House Administration Committee, introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, a bill that would bar members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from placing wagers on prediction markets tied to legislation, government actions, or election results. The measure expressly covers bets linked to those policy and electoral outcomes. The bill would impose a penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the wager’s value, whichever is greater, plus any profit realized from the bet.
There has been bipartisan unease about members of Congress placing wagers on prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, including bets on political events and contests in which lawmakers are themselves running. The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act builds on the Stop Insider Trading Act that was advanced in January. Rep. Bryan Steil has said he intends to add similar prediction-market restrictions to a separate, broader bill that would ban congressional stock trading; that broader bill has stalled since February, with supporters hoping for a summer vote. The Senate in April passed a resolution barring its members and staff from using prediction markets. In May, the House Oversight Committee opened investigations into Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged insider trading.
Under the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, violators would face a monetary penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the wager’s value, whichever is greater, and would be required to surrender any profit realized from the wager.
The bill would prohibit violators from using official office funds, taxpayer-funded allowances or campaign donations to pay the fines imposed. The legislation also provides that individuals who depart office without paying assessed fines could be referred to the Justice Department for civil enforcement.
These provisions apply to members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children when placing wagers on prediction markets tied to legislation, government actions or election results.
In April, Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was arrested for allegedly using confidential information to profit over $400,000 through bets on the Polymarket prediction platform. These bets were related to the political event of Nicolás Maduro’s removal in January. Van Dyke has entered a plea of not guilty to the charges, and his trial is scheduled to take place in December. This case has attracted significant attention due to the substantial profits involved and the implications for the use of insider information in prediction markets.
The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act was introduced as a legislative effort intended to strengthen ethical standards and protect public trust by prohibiting members of Congress and their families from wagering on political outcomes. The measure seeks to remove potential conflicts between public duties and private financial interests in prediction markets.
