Fed cut hopes tested by PCE, jobless claims and housing data

Published May 25, 2026, this introduction notes that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report, weekly jobless claims and housing data will test Fed cut hopes in the coming days and are highlighted as the week’s headline U.S. releases. The week starting May 25 is macro-led, with U.S. economic data carrying the main calendar risk for markets. The article identifies these U.S. releases as the primary economic events shaping the market calendar during that week.

Fed cut hopes: market projections

Prediction markets and the CME Group’s FedWatch tool currently point to rates remaining unchanged at the Federal Reserve’s June meeting. The article states this projection as the prevailing market indication for the June meeting. The coverage situates that market view amid the week’s macroeconomic calendar. The article situates that view in the context of the week’s scheduled economic releases.

“Prediction markets and the CME’s FedWatch tool currently point to rates remaining unchanged in June’s meeting.”

That quoted sentence appears verbatim in the article. The piece attributes the projection to prediction markets and the CME’s FedWatch tool as indicators. The article presents this information alongside other macroeconomic risks for the week.

Fed cut hopes: Middle East war, oil and inflation risk

The article states the data comes amid the ongoing Middle East war and that the conflict continues to influence oil prices. It adds that the war keeps inflation risk in focus for markets. The piece presents these developments as continuing influences on commodity and price dynamics.

The article states that any move higher in energy costs could make softer inflation harder to sustain. It also states that higher energy costs could weigh on risk assets. The article presents those effects as potential complications for achieving softer inflation and as a factor that could negatively affect risk assets.

The upcoming PCE report, weekly jobless claims and housing data are presented as the primary economic releases that will test Fed cut hopes and help determine near‑term market dynamics. The article frames these releases as central to market participants’ assessment of inflation risks and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, and indicates that their collective outcomes will be a significant factor shaping how investors and traders position across asset classes in the immediate market cycle.