During the first quarter of 2026, the crypto market sentiment was notably ambivalent, as illustrated by the Conviction/Ambivalence gauge reaching its peak of indifference. This period of ambivalence was accompanied by “durable crypto allocations,” with Bitcoin priced at approximately $80,953, Ethereum ranging between $1,800 and $2,300, and Solana trading in the mid-$80s. These price ranges reflect the cautious investment landscape at the time.
The Conviction/Ambivalence gauge is presented as a measure of market momentum that compares returns across timeframes by calculating an average ratio of weekly returns to daily returns. In the first quarter of 2026 the gauge reached maximum ambivalence, reflecting a peak of indifference in market conviction.
Market observers described Q1 2026 as low-energy and ambivalent, noting movement without momentum, progress without pulse, and more than a few ‘sad-trombone’ rallies that faded before they could build on themselves. That characterization stands in contrast to last year’s Q2 and Q3 rally, which was described as having velocity, power, and breadth.
The gauge’s maximum ambivalence in Q1 2026 coincided with these descriptions of muted market momentum and limited sustained directional movement. The Conviction Gauge is calculated as the average ratio of weekly to daily returns.
In the first quarter of 2026, funding rates for perpetual futures in the crypto markets remained persistently low or negative, signaling a muted trading environment. Additionally, on the Aave platform, DeFi borrow rates dropped to around 3% leading up to a recent exploit, which was a notable decrease from the over 20% rates observed after the 2024 election. Typically, borrow rates hover between 5% and 7% under standard market conditions.
In parallel, the GENIUS Act served as a market catalyst, injecting vigor into the crypto markets by fueling activity and potentially altering the typical market dynamics. These metrics highlight the market’s fluctuating conditions and legislative impacts during this period.
The article lists Andy Baehr, Sarah Morton, and Patrick Velleman among its named contributors. It includes the direct investor question: “I want to add some crypto. What should I actually own?” It also records the timing recommendation: “It’s time to position for the next change of the season.” The piece characterizes market sentiment with concise expressions noting that crypto markets feel low-energy and ambivalent.
These quoted questions and timing statements are presented alongside other observations about allocations, market momentum, and metrics. The named individuals appear in the article in connection with those statements.
The article presents an informative, analytical, and cautious advisory-focused perspective on durable crypto allocations, framing the topic for financial advisors. It highlights prevailing market ambivalence and characterizes recent conditions as low-energy and lacking sustained momentum, using that context to discuss allocation approaches. Across the piece, the narrative emphasizes advisor caution and the importance of deliberate positioning without detailing specific asset prices or direct market predictions.
