Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly published a quarterly report titled “Charting Crypto: 1Q 2026,” which focuses on Bitcoin’s transition into a more stable phase. This comprehensive report evaluates market developments from 2025 leading into 2026, with an emphasis on the significant reduction of excess leverage and the improvement of overall market conditions. The analysis indicates that Bitcoin is entering 2026 with increased stability, being less susceptible to cascading liquidations and better equipped to handle macroeconomic shocks. These findings underscore a shift towards a macro-sensitive market environment, contrasting the earlier speculative-driven rallies.
The recent report by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode highlights a crucial shift in the cryptocurrency market dynamics, focusing on the reduction of excess leverage. During the fourth-quarter selloff of the previous year, a significant cleansing of excess leverage occurred, resulting in Bitcoin becoming less prone to cascading liquidations. This purge has positioned the market to better withstand macroeconomic shocks.
Moreover, the report describes the current market as macro-sensitive, indicating that it is now more aligned with broader economic conditions rather than being driven by speculative rallies. This transformation reflects a disciplined market structure, showcasing a preference for durability and defensive positioning from professional investors. Stability, rather than rapid speculative growth, is now prioritized, signaling a fundamental change in market behavior.
The report from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode emphasizes a market structure that prioritizes durability over speed, reflecting a disciplined approach among professional investors. This orientation highlights a preference for stability and a defensive stance, which has become more prevalent in the current market environment. As part of this shift, there is a notable increase in open interest in Bitcoin options surpassing that in perpetual futures. This trend suggests a growing inclination towards hedging strategies among investors, focusing on risk management rather than engaging in directional risk-taking.
This change in market dynamics is indicative of a broader market maturation, where professional investors are adopting strategies that emphasize sustained growth and risk mitigation. The focus on options over futures reflects a strategic alignment with market conditions that demand careful navigation through potential economic volatility. The overall indication is a market more attuned to macroeconomic influences, steering clear of speculative excess that previously characterized the cryptomarket.
The report identifies the Global M2 Money Supply Index as a historical leading indicator of Bitcoin’s price with an estimated lead time of about 110 days. It states that the index remains positively aligned for the current quarter. The authors present this indicator within their quarterly monetary analysis. The report provides these findings as part of its review of monetary indicators affecting Bitcoin price behavior.
The report also states that money supply growth is expected to moderate later in the period. This expectation is included in the report’s assessment of monetary indicators for the quarter. The analysis presents money supply trends alongside other market signals. The moderation expectation is reported alongside other indicators used to assess macro liquidity conditions.
On-chain metrics in the report indicate faster movement of coins, a lower share of long-held supply, and net reallocation of coins rather than market exit. The report presents these metrics as part of its on-chain analysis of supply dynamics. It states that more coins are changing hands and that the share of supply held long term has decreased. The authors describe the observed flows as reallocations within the market rather than an exodus of holders.
The report also indicates that investor sentiment has weakened since October, with unrealized gains and losses reflecting subdued sentiment overall. The authors include unrealized gains and losses among the measures showing this sentiment decline. The report notes overall signals pointing to slower price discovery and tighter links to macroeconomic conditions. Unrealized gains and losses are cited in the report as indicators showing subdued sentiment since October.
Combined signals from market structure, monetary indicators, and on-chain data indicate slower price discovery and stronger correlations with macroeconomic conditions. Market-structure signals include a shift toward durability over speed, defensive positioning by professional investors, and higher open interest in Bitcoin options relative to perpetual futures, reflecting a preference for hedging over directional risk-taking.
Monetary indicators cited in the report include the Global M2 Money Supply Index, which historically leads Bitcoin’s price by about 110 days and remains positively aligned for the current quarter, while money supply growth is expected to moderate later in the period.
On-chain metrics show faster coin movement, a lower share of long-held supply, and net reallocation rather than exit, and investor sentiment has weakened since October with unrealized gains and losses showing subdued sentiment overall.
