Prediction markets have registered substantial user growth as Polymarket’s app installs rose from 30,000 to over 400,000 between January and December 2025. At the same time, weekly trading volume across prediction platforms increased markedly, climbing from $500 million in June to nearly $6 billion in January, reflecting a rapid expansion in market activity over that period. Polymarket’s notional activity scaled alongside this broader uptick, with crypto contracts becoming one of the busiest trading categories on the platform and on-chain settlement handling most trade components other than order-matching. Several major retail platforms expanded into the space during this period, supporting the growth in user adoption and trading capacity.
These developments occurred against a weaker crypto market backdrop, as Bitcoin plunged nearly 30% from its October peak and digital asset investment products experienced large outflows. Digital asset investment products shed $1.73 billion in the largest weekly outflow since mid-November 2025, and Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $1.62 billion of outflows over four consecutive trading days as hedge funds unwound trades. Market-level metrics also showed that 70% of trading addresses realized losses while a very small fraction of addresses captured the majority of realized profits, indicating uneven distribution of gains and losses during the downturn.
On Polymarket, every key part of a trade except order-matching is settled on-chain. Order-matching itself operates off-chain. The platform returned to the U.S. market after receiving approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Upon re-entry, Polymarket applied taker fees of 10 basis points and maker fees of zero, the lowest fee schedule among major prediction platforms.
Polymarket’s notional crypto volume rose sharply, and crypto contracts became the platform’s second-busiest trading category. The company raised $205 million across two funding rounds. It also secured a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange at a valuation near $9 billion.
Kalshi closed a $1 billion funding round at an $11 billion valuation, and CNN became Kalshi’s official prediction markets partner. Coinbase, Robinhood, Gemini, and Crypto.com expanded into prediction markets during the period. Crypto.com white-labeled services for Trump Media. These developments reflected funding and partnership activity among competing platforms in the prediction markets space.
A Mizuho survey cited by Bloomberg found Coinbase and Robinhood users were more likely to use prediction platforms. The available sources do not provide additional details on the survey’s sample size or methodology. The available sources do not provide further information on the commercial terms of the white-label arrangement between Crypto.com and Trump Media.
The broader cryptocurrency market has experienced significant outflows and declining valuations. CoinShares reported that digital asset investment products saw outflows totaling $1.73 billion in one of the largest weekly losses since mid-November 2025. Concurrently, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a loss of $1.62 billion over a period of four days as hedge funds moved to unwind trades.
Additionally, more than 11 million coins essentially died last year, which suggests that many holdings became inactive or untraded. Trading behavior data indicated that 70% of trading addresses showed realized losses, while less than 0.04% of addresses accounted for over 70% of realized profits worth $3.7 billion. This points to a highly concentrated profit distribution among a small number of traders.
Moreover, a survey conducted by Coinbase-Institutional and Glassnode revealed that 70% of institutional investors view Bitcoin as undervalued. Additionally, 62% of these institutions have maintained or increased their positions in cryptocurrencies since the market downturn in October, reflecting a belief in the long-term value of digital assets.
Polymarket rolled out real estate bets allowing crypto traders to speculate on housing prices. The introduction of these event contracts represents a product expansion aimed at letting users wager on housing-price outcomes using the platform’s trading interface. The available sources do not provide information on the geographic markets or jurisdictions where these real estate bets are offered. The available sources do not provide additional details on the contracts’ specific terms, pricing, or settlement procedures.
Notional crypto volume across major prediction-market platforms increased nearly tenfold, and crypto contracts emerged as a major trading category on Polymarket. Polymarket added real estate event contracts that allow crypto traders to take positions on housing-price outcomes. Retail platforms including Coinbase, Robinhood, Gemini, and Crypto.com expanded into prediction markets, and industry reporting documents these platform moves. Market analyses and reporting on fund flows and platform activity are available for readers, including a market outflows report and coverage of regulatory approvals. The available sources do not provide a platform-by-platform breakdown beyond these aggregated metrics.
Prediction markets showed significant growth, exemplified by Polymarket’s app installs rising from 30,000 to over 400,000 between January and December 2025 and by weekly trading volume across prediction platforms increasing from $500 million in June to nearly $6 billion in January. Competition and funding accelerated in the sector: Polymarket raised $205 million across two funding rounds and secured a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange at a valuation near $9 billion, while Kalshi closed a $1 billion funding round at an $11 billion valuation and named CNN as its official prediction markets partner. Market conditions in crypto remained strained, with Bitcoin plunging nearly 30% from its October peak, CoinShares reporting $1.73 billion in weekly outflows, Bitcoin spot ETFs losing $1.62 billion over four trading days amid hedge fund unwinding, more than 11 million coins effectively dying last year, and trading-address data showing 70% of addresses realized losses while fewer than 0.04% of addresses captured over 70% of realized profits valued at $3.7 billion. Institutional survey data indicated that 70% of institutions view Bitcoin as undervalued and that 62% have maintained or increased crypto positions since October’s crash, and product innovation continued with Polymarket introducing real estate event contracts that let crypto traders speculate on housing prices.
